Analysts See Steep Climb for Vitter
November 18, 2015 
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Early voting for Louisiana’s Nov. 21 runoff for governor began Saturday, Nov. 7 and continued through Tuesday, Nov. 10. It took a break on Veterans Day, Wednesday, Nov. 11, and will resume Thursday, Nov. 12 to Saturday, Nov. 14.
For Republican pollster John Couvillon, the early voting numbers are not encouraging. Despite the belief by many that turnout would fall in the runoff, exactly the opposite appeared to be true, he said. During early voting for the Oct. 24 primary, 88,184 people voted statewide, but so far in the first three days of early voting for the Nov. 21 election, 119,381 have voted — a 35 percent increase.
Couvillon says the racial composition of early voting this time is more heavily black and Democratic. In October, the racial composition was 72 percent white and 26 percent black, but so far in November, it is 69 percent white and 29 percent black — a shift of six percent!
Moreover, the higher turnout is occurring in 41 parishes, most of which are more urban. The lower turnout is in 23 parishes that are more rural. The urban parishes are more favorable to Democratic gubernatorial candidate John Bel Edwards. These parishes are seeing a huge increase in turnout so far — Caddo, 109 percent; Orleans, 98 percent; Bossier, 89 percent; East Baton Rouge, 80 percent; Ascension, 68 percent; Calcasieu, 66 percent, and St. Tammany, 65 percent. Most are likely to vote heavily Democratic, Couvillon said.
The bottom line, he said, is a turnout for Nov. 21 which is likely to be in the range of 45 to 50 percent, rather than 39 percent.
In the Oct. 24 primary, Republican David Vitter received 23 percent of the vote statewide, compared to 40 percent for Democrat Edwards. Couvillon said that, as a result of the wide disparity, it has been essential for Vitter to very quickly consolidate conservative Republicans and attract white Democrats and independents. In 2014, losing Senate candidate Rob Maness quickly endorsed Republican Bill Cassidy and brought the party together to defeat Mary Landrieu. As a result, Couvillon said, the race was basically over at that time. Vitter has to be able to get the Angelle and Dardenne vote back and change the tone of the campaign.
Couvillon said Vitter’s new apology ad was a good start, but he will have to do more, Couvillon said.
“There’s still a week for voters to be impacted. TV is still the best way for Vitter to go,” he said. “If you are a conservative candidate trying to reassemble the conservative base, the best use of resources is targeted TV and some radio.”
High black turnout in the runoff could be a big plus for Edwards, Couvillon said. “Another advantage for Edwards is the fact that there are 14 or 15 black majority legislative districts with runoffs.
Couvillon said Vitter’s best strategy is not to continue trying to tie John Bel Edwards to Obama but instead to get voters looking at Edwards’ legislative voting record.
Lt. Governor’s Race. Couvillon said the race for Lt. Governor between Democrat Kip Holden and Republican Billy Nungesser is a partisan race. “Nungesser should be the heavy favorite but Holden performed better in the Baton Rouge area, which has 20 percent of the vote, than the typical Democrat. He said he expects Nungesser to win but it is not a slam dunk.
Attorney General. Couvillon said this is one of the most interesting races. The common wisdom is that incumbent Republican Buddy Caldwell would get the black vote over his Republican challenger Jeff Landry, but the endorsement of Landry by a black Democratic candidate complicates matters. “How Democratic voter groups decide to go will decide this race,” he said. “Caldwell has done his legwork to his share of conservative Republicans, and he should get a majority of black voters. Caldwell is more likely to win.”
Couvillon said Vitter has a short fuse to turn things around.
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Chen Jingye와 다른 사람들은 Tongyi를 통해 소식을 듣고 당황했습니다 …
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“말할 수 있습니까?”Wang Shouren은 Ouyang Zhi와 다른 사람들을 바라 보았습니다.
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그리고 베이징 진영의 이 큰 진영에는 수만 마리의 말과 말들이 급히 이곳에 모여 준비를 하고 있었다.
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그는 자동차 문으로 달려갔지만 문은 마치 용접으로 죽은 것처럼 전혀 움직이지 않았다.
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“…” Hongzhi 황제는 마음에 약간의 고통을 느꼈습니다.
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“이것이 폐하의 뜻입니다. 대위님, 노예들이 유언장을 다 읽게 해주시겠습니까?”
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그날 밤, 그는 기념관을 만들고 누군가에게 그것을 하룻밤 사이에 수도로 돌려보내라고 명령했습니다.검은색 거즈 모자와 관인이 도착했을 때 사람들은 매우 흥분했습니다.
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현재 연구소는 더 이상 10년 전의 모습이 아닙니다.
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이튿날 정오에 그는 병든 몸을 질질 끌고 황폐해진 성신전 밖으로 나갔다.
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“주인님…” 사모님은 기뻐하며 “뭐 먹을래?”
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수도에서 복사한 저택 보고서가 구이양 시로 보내졌습니다.
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그는 거대한 돛이 세워져 있는 것을 보았고 그 거대한 돛에 글귀가 있는 것 같았습니다.
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바로 지금 그는 많은 유교인들과 깨달음의 문제를 논의했습니다.
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Hongzhi 황제는 Fang Jifan을 바라보며 “안전을 보장 할 수 있습니까?”
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Fang Jifan은 “장작을 빌려줄 수 있습니다. “라고 말했습니다.
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Liu Jian이 말하자마자 근처에 있던 많은 사람들이 깜짝 놀랐습니다.
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Hongzhi 황제는 너무 안도하여 주저없이 그를 칭찬했습니다.
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게다가 서방항해비용은 모두 국내자금으로 충당했다.
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Hongzhi 황제는 마침내 그의 얼굴에 미소를 지었고 그의 얼굴에 약간의 피가 돌아 왔습니다.
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この記事は実用性が高くて、本当に助かります！
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Tang Yin은 오두막에서 나왔습니다. “죽었나요, 죽었나요?”Tang Yin과 다른 사람들도 “학생과 다른 사람들도 이것을 사용하여 문제를 해결합니다. “라고 말했습니다.
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조상들의 수공예품이 다시 등장하는데 끔찍한 점은 이제 사람들은 칼을 사용하고 나는 생선을 사용한다는 것입니다!
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그는 이번에 베이징에 머물면서 왕세자를 실제로 시험하려는 폐하의 의도를 마음 속으로 알고 있었습니다.
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물론 이런 모습에 대해 대략 두 가지 설명이 있는데, 하나는 위험 앞에서 두려워하지 말라는 것이다.
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初めてこのブログを読みましたが、すぐにファンになりました。楽しみにしています！
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그러나 Fang Jifan의 긍정적 인 대답은 Hongzhi 황제의 관심을 불러 일으켰습니다.
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Fang Jifan은 갑자기 “전하에게 아기가없는 이유는 무엇입니까? “라고 생각했습니다.
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둘째… 제 사촌이 루손에서 잘 지내고 있어요.
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このように実用的な記事は他にはない。本当に役に立ちます。
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가장 중요한 것은… 이 책에서 나는 나 자신이 되었다.
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感動しました！これからも素敵な記事を期待しています。
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Fang Jifan은이 두 사람이 성인이되었을 때 느꼈습니다.
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한 관리가 들어와서 그것을 보고 죄책감을 느꼈다.
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이 소식은 Fang Jifan에게 빠르게 퍼졌습니다.
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素晴らしい情報源です。いつも参考になります。
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Zhu Houzhao의 IQ로 그는 이생에서 그것을 볼 수 없습니다.
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この記事の書き方が大好きです。非常に理解しやすいです。
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Fang Jifan은 “가자, 연못에 가자”고 신나게 말했습니다.
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素晴らしい記事！非常にインスピレーションを受けました。
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Fang Jifan도 흥미를 느꼈고 Zhu Houzhao와 함께 재설계했습니다.
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Fang Jifan은 “당신이 나를 때리지 않으면 자연스럽게 도망 가지 않을 것입니다. “라고 말했습니다.Fang Jifan은 “사실 불가능하지 않습니다. “라고 말했습니다.
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このブログは常に期待を超えてくれます。いつも素晴らしい内容をありがとう。
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Yang Ya와 다른 사람들은 얼굴이 붉어졌지만 아무도 일어 서서 기꺼이 물러나지 않았습니다.
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このブログはいつも私に新しい知識をもたらしてくれます。ありがとうございます。
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음식은…생명이고 살아있는 생명입니다.
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Fang Jifan은 모두의 여유를 이용하여 빠져 나갔습니다 …
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読んでいて、実用的な情報が多くて非常に参考になりました。
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나 팡지판은 대명인으로 태어나 대명귀로 죽었으니 황진주에 가고 싶지 않다.
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이런 연습이 없었다면 오늘… 승리의 후광을 안고 어떻게 살아남을 수 있었을까.
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Hongzhi 황제는 흥분한 듯 보였고 그는 한 줄기 빛을 보았습니다.
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この記事はとても心に響きました。素晴らしい内容です。
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결국, 이 체스 선수는 그의 아버지… 또는 삼촌입니다.
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물론 아무도 감히 자신의 책상에 유휴 책을 주제넘게 올려놓을 수는 없었다.
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Yang Tinghe의 얼굴은 갑자기 비참해졌고 나머지 Hanlin은 서로 마주했습니다.
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いつも新鮮で興味深い視点を提供してくれてありがとう。
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Zhu Houzhao는 “하지만 지금은…아직 할 일이 많습니다.”라고 말했습니다.
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그러자 물속의 물고기처럼 쥐가 밥그릇 속으로 떨어졌다.
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情報がとても整理されていて、理解しやすかったです。
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“무력한?” Hongzhi 황제는 Zhu Wenjing에게 이상한 표정을지었습니다.
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이때 Hongzhi 황제는 Wei Guogong의 저택에 편안하게 앉았습니다.
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그러자 누군가가 이를 악물고 말했다. “팡지판, 저 새끼…”
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“수리되었습니다.” Zhu Houzhao는 “수리되었을 뿐만 아니라 …”라고 말했습니다.