The Key to Victory in November Is the Swing States
May 21, 2016 
67 Comments
“We will no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism. The nation state remains the true foundation for happiness and harmony. I am skeptical of international unions that tie us up and bring America down. Under my administration, we will never enter America into any agreement that reduces our ability to control our own affairs.” — Donald J. Trump
BATON ROUGE — In analyzing the general election in November, it is important to keep our eyes on the ball.
While the media will talk incessantly about women and Latinos, they are really not what the election will be about at all. The general election is fought state by state. You have to look at the swing states to understand a candidate’s path to victory.
What to Ignore. Polling in states like California is completely irrelevant to what is going to happen, because California is going to vote Democrat. Forget what men
think, what women think, what Latinos think, and what non-Latinos think in the states that are either solidly Democrat or Republican. Those numbers are irrelevant and will only confuse you. Keep your eyes on polling in the swing states!
The Magic Number. It takes 270 votes to win in the Electoral College, in order to be elected President. Romney carried states with 206 electoral votes. All of those states are Republican-oriented states. Trump must hold those states. He will need at least 64 additional electoral votes in order to win.
The swing states where a Trump victory is reasonably possible are Florida (29), Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (18), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), and Virginia (13).
Of these, the most important are Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. These six states could add 102 electoral votes — far more than enough for victory. In those swing states, Latinos are important only in Florida and Nevada, but most Latinos in Florida are Cuban and very conservative. The so-called Latino vote is concentrated almost entirely in non-swing states and thus not so important.
Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are rust belt states hard hit by the loss of manufacturing jobs. Trump will be very competitive there.
Virginia is a Southern state with a growing liberal population in the Washington, DC, area, but overall the state is still very competitive.
Nevada is a Western state where Trump is strong.
New Hampshire gave Trump a good vote in the primary and it could easily fall in his column.
The point is, each of the swing states is unique with its own unique issues. Don’t be distracted by the constant harping on women and Latinos and focus instead on how to win each one of those states.
Trump truly has the chance to “re-write the electoral map.”
***
Pro-Lifers Optimistic. Donald Trump is winning praise from pro-life leaders for hiring a top pro-life advocate as a key domestic policy advisory.
The resumptive GOP nominee hired long-time conservative congressional aide John Mashburn as his policy director. Mashburn is pro-life and has worked for pro-life lawmakers including the late Sen. Jesse Helms, former Senate Republican leader Trent Lott and current North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis.
As the Washington Examiner reports, pro-life groups see the move as Donald Trump making serious overtures to pro-life voters and hail it as Trump indicating he will govern in a pro-life manner if elected president.
— Woody Jenkins, Editor, Capital City News
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